Gartner research says that nearly a quarter of commercial software will be replaced by open source ones by 2011.
This will be due mainly to the growing popularity of open source amongst small and medium businesses as well as an increasing number of home users.
However, as one commentator added, it is quite difficult to find out the percentage of free software products out there since the fact that they are free often means that auditing their usage is not a priority.
However, if Gartner's figures are remotely near to the truth, then the traditional software industry is on for a very rough ride.
And understandably, the biggest software actors like Microsoft or Oracle are betting big money on turning software from a physical asset to a service.