5. What do you think might be the probable scenario if GPL 3.0 is adopted?
The real question here is still, “What will GPL3 be when it’s finally released?” The current draft goes a long way toward answering objections that have been raised, and my expectation is that the final version will go even further. If that is the case, then I would expect many of the projects that use GPL2 today to migrate to GPL3 as new versions are released.
There is always the possibility that this will not happen, and then the migration would be slow as most groups chose to stick with GPL2. The most complex scenarios would be project forking, or to offer both GPL2 and GPL3 versions.
If either of those scenarios come to pass, then the biggest challenge facing organizations will be how they are going to track modifications they’ve made to GPL 3 licensed projects to avoid triggering that patent clause. Consistent, accurate, code level inventory reports are a critical necessity for both compliance and risk mitigation and nowhere is this more apparent than when considering the adoption of GPL 3.