Why Oracle should buy Tibco next

Only a few months ago, I said that Tibco would not be bought and stated:

"With Tibco, there is no obvious buyer (as Oracle was with BEA) nor is there a neat fit into one of the majors (as BusinessObjects was with SAP).

Of the 4 listed by the "Analysts" quoted above, only IBM would make any sense. And Oracle, except that it is busy trying to eat BEA."

I now wish to recant and disagree with Steve's view that HP will get the prize. Now that Oracle has BEA, the next obvious target for it is Tibco and it should move quickly before IBM steps in. Here are my reasons:

- Tibco has the only big league competition to IBM's WebSphere-MQ in the message oriented middleware space. I

t is used widely in the largest financial services companies, telcos and beyond.

With Tibco combined with Oracle's database etc and BEA's application server, Oracle would have the fire-power to take on IBM's hold in these accounts.

- Tibco has developed its BusinessWorks integration product which plays in the SOA/EDA/BPM space. This is one of the best development tools I have seen in this space as well as being mature.

Combined with Oracle's and BEA's reach, BusinessWorks could deliver in the SOA marketplace in a way that it can't with a standalone Tibco.

- It would only cost $1.4bn (plus a bit of course). :-).

And finally what both Oracle and IBM have shown is that in this market there is no such thing as buying a company too soon - if you don't buy, somebody else will.