CES 2010 Flashpoints: The Platforms For The Next Decade In Electronics

The world does not run on gadgets. Consumers purchase gadgets as investments in the functionality that they provide. Gadgets are handles to their underlying platforms.

Every year, the Consumer Electronics Show is a gauge of the directions in which platforms are moving, a barometer of the evolution of functionality. Sure, we see plenty of neat toys, many of which end up either being for kids or making us feel like kids. 

And sure, we hear plenty of loosely coupled metaphors that play to our need to be excited, like how a certain device unleashes connectivity or harnesses the power of disruption -- phrases that read like they were assembled using that word game you play with refrigerator magnets.

Those are all diversions. At the heart of it, CES is a big chessboard, played out on a massive and often chaotic scale. And once again, the game's afoot.

As Betanews covers the goings-on, we'll be keeping watch over a handful of what we consider to be the key flashpoints of interest, with regard to platform evolution -- operating systems, systems-on-a-chip, connectivity standards, networks, systems. We'll be looking for how things fit together, so here are the first story lines we'll be watching for:

Android takes center stage. Last year at this time, Android was the emerging story at CES, the player just on the horizon, but with about as much overall buzz as Symbian. This year, with Apple still treating CES like a pagan festival in the opposite hemisphere, Android stands a real chance of becoming the most interesting and most innovative smartphone platform this year, finally giving Linux a place in the driver's seat. But a lot depends on how Google plays its Android card. By staging an iPhone-like pre-CES press event back in Mountain View for the rollout of its Nexus One device with HTC, Google could very well be sending the wrong message this year to the CES audience: that it, too, believes it can thumb its nose at CES. That may not be what Google intends; it may simply want to follow in Apple's footsteps. But assuming that's the case, even putting on an Apple costume may not be the stance Google should be taking during this critical period. Remember, this is the "Gphone" that was the subject of so much speculation since 2006. With such a head of steam holding it aloft, the only direction remaining could be down.

Does Palm have a follow-up act? Last year, the resurrection of Palm was the story of CES, effectively casting Windows Mobile as the platform of the past. But twelve months ago seems an incredibly long time, and even though Palm has followed up the Pre with the Pixi, the webOS platform doesn't appear to have maintained its lofty position in the public conscience. Verizon's and AT&T's reticence to embrace Palm phones as quickly as Sprint, and as soon as bloggers had speculated, may be among the reasons for webOS' recession. Palm has an opportunity at CES '10 to reverse this trend, to keep the recession from becoming a depression. But it needs to demonstrate the potential for nurturing new and innovative apps as rapidly as Android.

The next stage of netbook evolution. Since 2005, manufacturers had been planting the seeds for a portable computer platform that's in-between a notebook and a smartphone in flexibility, performance, and price. But they didn't seem to have the right formula for the fertilizer, if you will, until last year. Netbooks took root, sprouted, and bore some fruit in 2009, thanks in large part to Intel's Atom positioned just where the market needed it to be. But one ingredient for the juice in the "Miracle-Gro" for netbooks last year was the poor economy -- an ingredient which may be in shorter supply in 2010, as the consumer sector appears to be rebounding. Customers may have been settling for netbooks -- especially with carrier subsidies -- because they couldn't afford even low-cost notebooks. That may not be the case for long, even if Intel maintains artificial barriers between its next-generation Atom netbook and notebook platforms, especially now that the company is under intense scrutiny from at least three governments.