A new piece of analysis based on "conservative assumptions" proposes that 18.8 million iPhone 3GS users reaching the end of their contracts will upgrade to the new iPhone 4S in the coming year, Apple Insider reports.
Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray analyst, based his calculations on sales figures and upgrade trends. He estimates that 25% of iPhone 3GS owners may have already upgraded to the iPhone 4 with a further 15% desserting to an Android smartphone.
This leaves a figure of 18.8 million who he believes will opt for Apple's new iPhone 4S, that is going to be avilable from Friday in North America, Europe and Japan.
Two months ago, Munster revealed the results of a similar survey. At the time, 94% of the iPhone users expressed loyalty to their favoured brand and declared they were waiting to buy the new iPhone model. Less than half of Android users (47%) said they would upgrade within the Android range of mobile smartphones, and another 42% of them admitted they would switch to iPhone.
According to estimates, Apple is likely to sell around 104.4 million iPhones next year. The 35% increase from 2011 seems under the circumstances somewhat conservative, compared to the 90% year-over-year increases that Apple has gained in the last two years.
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