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Windows Phones To Surpass iPhone By 2015? Only With Price Cuts

One of the big research analyst firms, International Data Corporation, predicted in its worldwide quarterly mobile phone tracker report, that Windows Phone would surpass Apple's iPhone in terms of units shipped by 2015 with Android bigger than both combined.

The outfit suggests that Google's platform will have nearly 44 per cent of the market with Windows Phone at 20.3 percent and iOS lagging behind with 16.9 per cent. Apparently, the rest of the market, nearly a fifth, would be occupied by the likes of Bada OS (if it still exists), WebOS, Meego and Blackberry OS.

IDC reckons that Android will represent just under 39 per cent of the smartphone market by the end of the year with Symbian at 20.6 per cent and iOS at 18.2 percent, while Windows Phone will languish at 3.8 per cent.

What IDC is saying is that within the next four years, there will be no Symbian phones shipped by Nokia with Windows Phone replacing the whole lot and STILL losing more than a four percent market share by then.

Microsoft will only be able to achieve this sort of market penetration by sticking to Nokia's average selling price, which stood at 156 Euros in Q4 2010. This is much lower than what rivals like HTC or LG are currently charging for their Windows Phone 7 and brings another headache for Microsoft.

How will LG, HTC, Samsung, Huawei and the like react in the long run to the Microsoft/Nokia alliance? Will they just chin up and swallow the pill or go for an all-Android platform?

Désiré has been musing and writing about technology during a career spanning four decades. He dabbled in website building and web hosting when DHTML and frames were en vogue and started writing about the impact of technology on society just before the start of the Y2K hysteria at the turn of the last millennium. Following an eight-year stint at where he discovered the joys of global tech-fests, Désiré now heads up TechRadar Pro. Previously he was a freelance technology journalist at Incisive Media, Breakthrough Publishing and Vnunet, and Business Magazine. He also launched and hosted the first Tech Radio Show on Radio Plus.